The epidemic is temporary: foreign investment is optimistic about the Chinese economy for a long time



Under the influence of the epidemic, the performance of the Chinese economy in the first quarter of this year has attracted widespread speculation and discussion in the market. The short-term impact is inevitable, but a series of strong policy measures and the orderly resumption of production and economic and social production are improving external expectations. Many international institutions and interviewed experts have stated that the fundamentals of China's long-term economic improvement have not changed, and they are full of confidence in the economic recovery, foreign trade, and the resumption of work by foreign-funded enterprises.


The impact of the epidemic is short-term and local


Georgieva, president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said recently that the Chinese government is working to reduce the negative impact of the epidemic on the economy through crisis response measures, liquidity supply, fiscal policy and financial support. With the effective prevention and control of the epidemic by the above-mentioned policies and measures, the Chinese economy will return to normal in the second quarter, and the global economy may be less affected in the future and the duration may be shorter.


The latest survey results from Reuters hold the same view. The 40 Asia-Pacific and European and American economists interviewed expressed optimism about China's economic outlook and thought that the Chinese economy would rebound rapidly in the second quarter.


"The overall impact of the epidemic on China's economy is short-term and partial." Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher at the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that the epidemic is an emergency, and the short-term economy may be relatively affected, but as the epidemic gradually progresses Control, resumption of work and orderly progress, economic and social life will return to normal order. By properly handling the relationship between scientific epidemic prevention and orderly resumption of work, China's economy is expected to remain within a reasonable range.


Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce and deputy director of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that the epidemic did have an impact on the entire economy and society, but the more comprehensive, dialectical and long-term perspective of economic and social development is at this time. "The fundamentals of the long-term improvement of the Chinese economy have not changed, and the impact of the epidemic is short-term and controllable. We are full of confidence in foreign trade, foreign investment, and the resumption of production by enterprises." He said.


Foreign investment is optimistic about the Chinese economy for a long time


On February 25, a signing ceremony for a unique foreign investment project was held simultaneously in 16 cities in Shandong. 66 key foreign-funded projects are concentrated in “video contracting”, with a total investment estimated at US $ 14.39 billion and contracted or contracted foreign investment of US $ 4.27 billion. What about foreign investment? This scene is representative.


Looking at big projects, Guangdong BASF Chemical Project, Tesla Shanghai Super Factory, BMW Brilliance Shenyang Factory are orderly resumed and resumed production; seeing new contracts, Shanghai, Shandong and other places have achieved a number of new projects "video signing". In January, 3,485 foreign-invested enterprises were newly established nationwide, and the actual use of foreign capital was 87.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%.


"Guangdong, Fujian, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong. These developed export-oriented provinces have already started to attract foreign investment." Wei Jianguo said that this year's "Foreign Investment Law" has been implemented and the negative list of foreign investment will continue to shrink. When the global economy is in a downturn, China is still the first choice for multinational companies to invest.


A recent survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China shows that 55% of the companies surveyed believe that it is too early to judge the impact of the epidemic on their business strategy in the next 3 to 5 years; 34% of the companies believe that there will be no impact. Wei Jianguo also said that from the feedback of many associations, they are still optimistic about the Chinese economy in the long run. "China's attraction of foreign investment this year is expected to maintain the situation since last year, and intensify reform and opening up, even more than last year." He said.


Will the impact of the epidemic cause some supply chains to leave China? In Zhang Yansheng's view, in recent years, some of the production processes and links have indeed been transferred to the outside world, but the main ones that have left are mainly high-cost-driven parts; while those who enter China are mostly sold to the Chinese market, which is for the transformation and upgrading of the Chinese economy The service part. China is relying on high-tech manufacturing and service industries and China's huge market to attract global supply chains. "This cooperation is long-term, and the impact of the epidemic is short-term." Zhang Yansheng said.


Foreign trade is expected to achieve further growth throughout the year


Recently, the freight train of "Yi Xin Europe" has officially opened. A train carrying 86 standard containers departed from Zhejiang Yiwu West Station and sent overseas products from China. In the Alfa Laval Industrial Park in Jiaozhou, Shandong, workers are busy. As the world's largest manufacturer of marine boilers, this company is stepping up the production of a number of orders for South Korea and Japan ... The resumption of production and resumption of production by Chinese foreign trade companies also smooths the upstream and downstream of the global industry.


Wei Jianguo said that the current overall trend of resuming production and restarting of foreign trade companies is good, but there are still imbalances. Some enterprises are facing difficulties such as resuming production and resuming production due to lack of raw materials and component products, as well as difficulties in resuming production and resuming production. It is also difficult to resume production with high yields, and other enterprises are facing problems such as using big data and cloud computing to strengthen innovation.


In response to these issues, the relevant departments have provided a number of measures to support foreign trade, commercial trade circulation, and support for the high-quality development of comprehensive bonded zones. In addition, Wei Jianguo also suggested that the stability of foreign trade should take advantage of China's industrial clusters. China has the world's largest, most complete, and most complete manufacturing system, and it can activate upstream and downstream by focusing on industrial clusters. To solve the problem of information communication, logistics communication, and resumption of production, it is possible to build a big data information platform to allow enterprises to uniformly receive orders, share labor services, and complement each other's advantages.


Wei Jianguo said that in terms of exports, the current foreign trade in China has changed the pattern of processing trade occupying half of the country, and private enterprises that are the mainstay of foreign trade are full of vitality. In terms of imports, domestic consumption capacity and level are still there, and there is great potential for health and wellness, sports equipment, and medical drugs. He said that it is expected that the overall import and export will develop greatly after the epidemic, and it is expected to grow again on the basis of last year.