The RMB exchange rate once broke the 6.38 mark



         Since late September, the overall appreciation of the renminbi has been obvious.


   On October 19, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates broke through the 6.40 important psychological barrier, breaking the previous four consecutive months of consolidation. On the same day, the onshore renminbi exchange rate rose by 0.74%, and the offshore renminbi rose by 0.81%. Both rose above the 6.40 mark, setting a 4-month high.


   On October 20, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar both recovered the 6.38 mark. Among them, the onshore renminbi exchange rate hit 6.3794, and the offshore renminbi exchange rate once rose to 6.3734.


   It is worth mentioning that since the end of June, the US dollar index has risen by 1.6%. However, the RMB exchange rate has not depreciated, but has appreciated 0.3% against the US dollar. The industry believes that besides recent strong exports, tight supply in the offshore and onshore RMB and foreign exchange markets is an important driving factor.


         The macro team of CICC believes that China’s exports in the fourth quarter may still maintain strong growth, and the Fed may actually begin to tighten monetary policy at the end of the year. Therefore, before the liquidity of the US dollar is actually tightened, the RMB exchange rate may continue to be supported. High probability range oscillates.’